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To get a better sense of how well each team could perform this season, we consulted ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). FPI used 20,000 season simulations conducted by our ESPN Stats & Information team to project win totals for each team. To determine a high and low, we extracted the middle 90% of those simulations. This gave us a ceiling and floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extreme outliers eliminated.

What can we expect from each team this season? What could be each team’s record if everything goes right? What would their records look like if the worst-case scenario unfolds? We compiled the FPI ceilings and floors for each team and asked our NFL Nation reporters to identify the most significant factor that will determine where each team falls within that range. However, our reporters were not allowed to rely on the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.

In last year’s analysis, we theorized that the Chiefs’ pass rush would be the determining factor in whether they reached their ceiling. Kansas City finished second in sacks last year with 57, and that aggressive defense helped the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl.

Let’s examine each division, starting with the AFC East:

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offseason changes

The Bills made significant changes during the offseason, including parting ways with several veteran players. Of the eight 2023 team captains, six have departed. The Bills will rely on new additions to make positive contributions, from the revamped wide receiver room to the new starting safeties. The success of the team’s veteran leaders and the impact of the new players will greatly influence the Bills’ quest for a fifth consecutive division title. – Alaina Getzenberg

Miami Dolphins

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Pass-rush depth

The Dolphins’ pass rush was depleted by the end of last season, which coincided with their disappointing finish. They addressed this issue by adding Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara through the draft. Phillips is back, and if he can regain and surpass his form from last season, Miami could have an exciting rotation of pass rushers. – Marcel Louis-Jacques

New England Patriots

Ceiling: 7-10 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

Coach Jerod Mayo wants the Patriots to become a running team, which would alleviate pressure on a passing offense that lacks a true No. 1 receiver and is expected to be led by Jacoby Brissett before Drake Maye takes over at some point. The Patriots have solid running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, but the offensive line has been shaky, particularly at tackle.

New York Jets

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

To protect Aaron Rodgers, the Jets need significant improvement from their offensive line, which allowed 64 sacks last season. They brought in three new starters, but keeping them healthy, especially Tyron Smith, is crucial. – Rich Cimini

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

The Ravens opted for a younger offensive line, trading away some veterans. The three new starters will have a major impact, particularly in pass protection. Baltimore is 8-9 when Lamar Jackson is sacked four or more times and 50-10 when he is sacked three or fewer times. – Jamison Hensley

Cincinnati Bengals

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Secondary play

The Bengals allowed the most yards per pass attempt last season. Bringing back safety Vonn Bell has improved communication in the secondary, which could flip the fortunes of a unit that was 12th in yards per attempt allowed in 2022. – Ben Baby

Cleveland Browns

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: RB Nick Chubb

Chubb has been a cornerstone of the Browns’ offense since 2018. However, a severe knee injury last September has raised concerns about his availability and form. How quickly Chubb can return to his Pro Bowl level will significantly influence Cleveland’s chances of making the playoffs again. – Daniel Oyefusi

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver depth

The Steelers have a clear No. 1 receiver in George Pickens, but the depth behind him is uncertain. The team traded away Diontae Johnson and added Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson. If Jefferson’s performance in training camp translates to the regular season, the Steelers will be in good shape. If not, the offense could struggle. – Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive line health

Offensive line health could be critical, with left tackle Laremy Tunsil recovering from offseason knee surgery. Tunsil is the Texans’ best offensive lineman, and his presence is crucial for the young players around him. If Tunsil misses significant time, the left side of the unit could become a liability. – DJ Bien-Aime

Indianapolis Colts

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: RB Jonathan Taylor’s performance

Taylor has been hampered by injuries the past two seasons. However, when healthy, he is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the NFL. He showed flashes of his potential late last season, punctuating 2023 with a 188-yard rushing performance against Houston. Taylor’s presence will also positively impact the read-option potential of quarterback Anthony Richardson. – Stephen Holder

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement

Four of the five starters from last season’s offensive line, which ranked poorly in pass block and run block, are back. All four suffered injuries last season, and the Jaguars are hoping for a healthier, much-improved unit with the addition of center Mitch Morse. If not, it will be challenging to run the ball consistently. – Michael DiRocco

Tennessee Titans

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement

Adding Bill Callahan as offensive line coach will significantly boost any group of linemen. The Titans further strengthened the unit by drafting JC Latham at left tackle and signing center Lloyd Cushenberry III. Last year’s group gave up 64 sacks, making it difficult to convert on third-and-long situations. This year’s group should be much improved, leading to more offensive efficiency. – Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Depth overall, especially in offensive line

Considering the roster turnover caused by having five head coaches since 2016, it’s unsurprising that the Broncos lack depth. Add in draft picks lost due to trades and salary cap issues, and it has been difficult for Denver to establish depth, especially on the offensive line. This is particularly concerning considering Quinn Bailey, who played both guard and tackle, suffered a season-ending lower leg injury in training camp. – Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 9-8

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver play

It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs staying atop the AFC and winning a third straight