The Syrian-Hezbollah Alliance: A Changing Dynamic
The alliance between Hezbollah and the Syrian regime has been open and close-knit for over two decades, with Syria providing Hezbollah with political and media support. However, Syria’s reaction to recent events, such as the assassination of a senior Hezbollah figure and the assassination of Hamas’ political leader, has raised questions about the nature of this alliance.
Syria’s Response to Hezbollah Leader’s Assassination
The assassination of Hezbollah’s chief of staff, Fouad Shukr, sent shockwaves through the organization. However, Syria’s response was surprisingly muted. The Syrian News Agency SANA reported the incident without any formal condemnation or even a message of condolence. This lack of response has raised speculation about the health of the Syria-Hezbollah relationship.
Syria’s Response to Hamas Leader’s Assassination
Syria’s response to the assassination of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was also noteworthy. While Syria did issue a statement condemning the attack, the focus was primarily on the violation of Iranian sovereignty rather than on Haniyeh’s death, which was mentioned only once. This suggests that Syria may be trying to distance itself from Iran and its proxies.
Syria’s Stance on Israeli Attacks
Syria’s response to Israeli attacks on its territory has also been curious. In its statement on Iran’s retaliation for the attack on its consulate in Damascus, Syria referred to the incident as if it had happened in another country. This suggests that the regime is trying to downplay the importance of Israeli attacks and avoid escalating tensions with Israel.
The Assad Regime’s Changing Stance
The Assad regime has historically built its legitimacy on its pro-Palestinian stance. However, in recent years, the regime has shifted its priorities towards maintaining power, even at the expense of its previous rhetoric. This is evident in its muted response to the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader and Hamas’ political leader.
Iran’s Influence on Syria
Iran’s influence in Syria has grown significantly in recent years. Iranian forces and allied militias have played a key role in supporting the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war. However, Iran’s influence may be waning as Russia increases its presence in Syria. This could lead to further changes in Syria’s stance on regional conflicts.
The Future of the Syrian-Hezbollah Alliance
The future of the Syrian-Hezbollah alliance is uncertain. Syria’s changing priorities, Iran’s waning influence, and Russia’s growing presence could all contribute to a redefinition of this relationship. It remains to be seen whether the alliance will remain as close as it has been in the past or whether it will become more transactional.
