Countdown to Tuesday’s primaries: Tracking races in four crucial states

The political landscape continues to shift as we approach the November midterm elections, and Tuesday’s primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington will offer important insights into the candidates and issues that will shape the fall campaigns. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of some of the most competitive races to watch:

Missouri

1st Congressional District
One of the most closely watched races in the country is the Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st District. Incumbent Rep. Cori Bush, a progressive activist, is facing a serious challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell. Bell, who was also elected as a progressive but has since aligned himself with more centrist and conservative interests, has outspent Bush in the campaign and has received support from national Democrats. The race has drawn national attention, with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee spending heavily to support Bell and oppose Bush.

3rd Congressional District
In the Republican primary for the 3rd District, former state Sen. Bob Onder is the favorite. Onder, who is backed by Trump and other national conservative groups, has run on a hardline conservative platform. His main opponent is former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, who has positioned himself as a more moderate alternative. The race has been relatively quiet, with Onder holding a significant fundraising advantage.

Governor
With Republican Gov. Mike Parson not seeking reelection, the primary for governor is wide open. Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel are the top candidates. Ashcroft started the race with a strong lead, but Kehoe has since closed the gap and is now the favorite. Eigel, who has run a more conservative campaign, is trailing but could still be a factor in the race.

Attorney General
In the Republican primary for attorney general, incumbent Andrew Bailey is facing a challenge from Will Scharf, one of Trump’s personal attorneys. Bailey, who was appointed by Parson, has drawn criticism for his handling of certain cases, while Scharf has run on a platform of being an “outsider” who will fight for conservative values. Bailey has the advantage of incumbency, but Scharf has been running an aggressive campaign and has received some support from national conservative groups.

Michigan

U.S. Senate
The most high-profile race in Michigan is the open U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the favorite in the Democratic primary, while former Rep. Mike Rogers is the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary. Amash, despite his libertarian leanings and opposition to Trump, faces an uphill battle against the Trump-endorsed Rogers.

8th Congressional District
The retirement of Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee has opened up this competitive seat. In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is the favorite. Rivet has received support from national Democrats and labor unions. Her main opponent is former Army Ranger Matt Collier, who has run a more progressive campaign. In the Republican primary, former Trump administration official Paul Junge is facing a challenge from retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves. Junge has outraised Draves and has the support of Trump.

10th Congressional District
In the Democratic primary for the 10th District, former Macomb County judge Carl Marlinga is facing a challenge from Diane Young and Emily Busch. Marlinga, who lost to Thanedar in the 2022 primary, has been criticized for his moderate stance on abortion. Young and Busch are more progressive and have attacked Marlinga on his record.

13th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar is facing a primary challenge from Detroit City Council member Mary Waters. Thanedar, who is Indian American, has been criticized for his lack of support for Black voters in Detroit. Waters, who has support from the Congressional Black Caucus, is running on a platform of representing the interests of Black voters in the district.

Kansas

2nd Congressional District
The retirement of Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner has sparked a competitive primary for this safe red seat. Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt is the frontrunner, but he is facing challenges from former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs and rancher Shawn Tiffany. Schmidt has the advantage of name recognition and a strong donor base, but Kahrs and Tiffany are running as conservative outsiders.

3rd Congressional District
In the Republican primary for the 3rd District, Prasanth Reddy is the clear frontrunner. Reddy, a cancer physician and Air Force reservist, has received support from national Republicans and is running on a platform of border security and fiscal conservatism. His only opponent is businesswoman Karen Crnkovich, who has struggled to gain traction in the race.

Washington

Governor
With Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee not seeking reelection, the race for governor is wide open. Attorney General Bob Ferguson is the favorite in the Democratic primary, while former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is the frontrunner in the Republican primary. Reichert, a moderate who has a record of bipartisanship, could appeal to voters in this swing state.

3rd Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who pulled off an upset victory in 2022, is facing a rematch with Republican Joe Kent. Kent, a former Green Beret and election denier, has the backing of Trump. Gluesenkamp Perez, who has run on a moderate platform, is looking to defy the odds once again.

4th Congressional District
Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, is facing a primary challenge from former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley. Sessler has received Trump’s sole endorsement, while Smiley has positioned herself as an outsider who will fight for conservative values. Newhouse has the advantage of incumbency, but Smiley could emerge as a serious threat.

5th Congressional District
The retirement of Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers has opened up this seat. In the Republican primary, Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner is the frontrunner. Baumgartner has been endorsed by McMorris Rodgers and has a significant fundraising advantage. His main opponent is state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, who has run on a more conservative platform.

6th Congressional District
The retirement of Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer has sparked a competitive primary for this open seat. Democrat Hilary Franz, the state’s public lands commissioner, is the favorite. Franz has received the endorsement of retiring Rep. Kilmer and has a significant fundraising lead. Her main opponent is state Sen. Emily Randall, who has also run a strong campaign and has received support from national Democrats. This race could lead to a Democrat-versus-Democrat general election in this swing district.